Emerging political scenario in 2017

‘Panamagate’ refuses to die as the New Year has begun with new bench of the Supreme Court, which will start hearing petitions of Imran Khan and others from Wednesday. However, the new chief justice of Pakistan, Justice Saqib Nisar, has recused himself from the case. In all probability, the outcome of the case will dominate the emerging political scenario in 2017, which even otherwise is the electioneering year and we will witness lots of political happenings in the next 12 months.

Both, the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) and the main opposition party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) are confident of winning the case, but it is good that both will accept the judgement, at least this is what they say right now.

However, Imran Khan was disappointed when the previous bench, headed by former chief justice, Anwar Zaheer Jamali, adjourned the hearing till the first week of January, and said, the new bench would hear the petitions.

When the senior most judge, Justice Saqib Nisar, took the oath, he ended all kinds of speculations over 'Panama case’, by keeping himself out of the bench. Whether elections will be held as per schedule in 2018 or earlier, the battle for Islamabad will be between the ruling PML-N and opposition PTI, the SC verdict on Panama will also determine the political career of both Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, his daughter Maryam Nawaz and also of Imran Khan.

Imran, who had lost his campaign over election rigging in 2013 after the Judicial Commission findings in 2015, wants to win 'Panama case’, as his chances of victory in the next general elections has a lot to do with the court verdict.

Defeat in this case will further reduce his chances of winning the upcoming elections, but a victory could give a new lease of life to his party and he could go into polls with high spirits. On the other hand, stakes are also high in the other camp. There’s a lot more than the political career of PM Sharif which is under threat.

Any adverse ruling would seriously dent his political legacy, as he often sees his daughter taking over power from him in future. But, the PML-N is ready to take the challenge, as the political battle between the PML and the PTI has now entered the crucial phase and political temperature has also soared.

The kind of language being used by both sides during TV talk shows and in public meetings also reflects rising tensions. The battle for Punjab is the battle for Islamabad. The PML-N has been ruling the province since 1985 and has retired General Pervez Musharraf not staged a coup on Oct 12, 1999, Sharifs could have enjoyed an uninterrupted rule. Musharraf's era had created a split in the party and Chaudhrys of Gujrat sided with the former president as an alley.

However, for the first time, the Muslim League emerged as an opposition party, unlike in the past when leaguers had the reputation of changing loyalties. But many who changed their loyalties during Musharraf's period are now part of PML-N, something which went against Shairfs’ post-Musharraf politics.

Imran Khan, who also supported Musharraf from 1999 to 2002, not only regretted his association with him but is also seriously challenging Sharifs’ political supremacy now. Thus, in 2017, the battlefield will be Lahore, which since 1970s had witnessed major political transformation. Once it was the stronghold of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), under Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. It is the city where three major political parties, PPP, PML and PTI were founded.

So, the city will witness one of the most crucial political battles in the next elections between the 'might of Sharifs’, and the rise of Imran. Some PML-N leaders conceded that for the first time the party faced serious political challenge in 2013 elections in Lahore, and the PTI did jolt the party. "In a way it was good for the party, as competition always helps you correct your mistakes, said a PML-N leader on condition of anonymity, as he criticised some of the party leaders.

Now where would stand the other mainstream political parties in this 'two-party battle’? The PTI has practically replaced the PPP in Punjab, and the latter may witness some important party leaders leaving it before the elections.

The decision of former president, Asif Ali Zardari, to take the centre-stage is something which had been opposed by many leaders of the PPP Punjab. They had even suggested to Mr Zardari to either stay away from the party or become the party's 'Rahbar’ (patron).

The only option for the PPP is the post-election scenario, as they are unlikely to stage a big comeback in near future. In 2017, the party would try to regain some of its lost glory in southern Punjab and sweep in Sindh including improving its position in Karachi.

While Imran Khan is confident that the PTI would retain its position in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, only an anti-PTI alliance comprising PML-N, JUI-F, ANP and PPP could pose challenge to the PTI-JI alliance.

Therefore, we may see hectic political manoeuvring in 2017, in the post-Panama scenario. But, for the first time, Karachi will be most unpredictable in the aftermath of a split in the MQM, between the MQM-Pakistan, MQM-London and Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP). Will this split help any of the three or parties like PPP, JI and PTI, is yet to be seen.

The year would determine the future political discourse for 2018. Thus, the visit of Imran Khan and his stay in the city for three days clearly showed that he sees the party chances and has decided to hold public meetings here in the next few months.

While there are little chances of any grand opposition alliance before the election, the PPP is at crossroad right now. The only positive response which Mr Zardari has got was from the PML-Q’s Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, who met him recently. But, his own party's position in Punjab and elsewhere is not much different from that of the PPP in Punjab.

The Supreme Court, since the historic lawyer movement, had taken some historic decisions. It has done what the successive governments and Parliament have failed to do, like holding of local government elections or population census on time as a constitutional obligation. In fact, they failed and put the burden on the SC.

While the mainstream opposition parties, led by Imran Khan, and even persons like Sirajul Haq, have stated that if they did not get justice from the SC, they would settle the issue on roads, i.e. agitation. For them, ‘justice’ means decision in their favour.

Thus, in many ways we have not only tried to politicise the case but also the judiciary, something which could have negative repercussion on the independence of judiciary.

The year 2017 will be the test of political maturity, independence of judiciary, autonomous Election Commission of Pakistan, constituted with consensus and the test of parliament to adopt consensus 'electoral reforms’, and implement it before the next polls.


Source: GEO News

PMLN Government All Set To Lease Pakistan Steel Mills and PIA

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif announced his children Hassan & Hussain are blessed with amazing business managing abilities. At the tender age of 16 they had become billionaires by running their steel mills, one of the most successful businesses all over the world Lakshmi Mittal is a fair example of a "King of Steel". Sadly, state owned Pakistan steel mills couldn't be handled by PMLN leadership and it is now set up for lease to a foreign country.

Moonis Elahi, Imran Khan, Chaudhry Pervaiz and many other prominent opposition leaders have expressed their concerns over such decisions. Inability to revive the steel mill in 3 years proves incompetence of the N league.

The premier has finally been taken to court over the Panama Leaks issue, the nation demands to know if you can't run state owned businesses to be profitable, how is it possible that your personal businesses flourish but every government business fails under your leadership? Where do their earnings go?

To me as an ordinary citizen of Pakistan it is quite disturbing to know that most of our national businesses have totally collapsed. In my search to find the truth about PMLN's abilities I began skimming through official accounts on Twitter (as it is mostly accurate and is updated frequently) of our prominent leaders.

This one made me bang my head on the desk:

How Mr Ahsan Iqbal do you claim Pakistan to be an emerging market? Leasing out factories doesn't mean investors are considering your country as an emerging market but if new factories are set up and new entrants enter the competition then we can call it progressive. To me as a common man who faces common problems throughout the year, this is just fake publicity.

We didn't have electricity throughout summer to support factories and businesses and now its winter and we don't have Gas! Utility bill prices are hiked with the arrival of a new season and yet every institution reports loss. You need loans for every project and even to run the country every month and still we are in lead? Our textile industry is now doomed because winter is coming and your government has announced gas load shedding.

I then came across a tweet by Moonis Elahi:

Though this isn't directly aimed towards the PSM decision but truly portrays what our incumbent government is capable of. To add injury to insult, PIA also reflects their inefficiency and we've heard rumors in the past it was up for lease too but that didn't happen. PIA is another state owned business that files losses each year but our leaders in power aren't concerned by it. They rather build new Metro trains and Metro buses but can't make reforms in national policy to bring back national railways and other national businesses to their feet. Mr. Moonis Elahi has said it in the best way.

The headline in Dawn made my heart sink as I read Chinese and Iranian firms are interested to take over our loss bearing Pakistan Steel Mills. If these companies are willing to take over, they must be sure it is profitable so why can't Pakistan? Obviously the monthly profits will fly off to the country that succeeds in the bidding. But this profit could have been used for the benefit of our own nation.

Money acquired from leasing it will be a onetime payment and God knows where will it be used, to buy another luxury flat through some offshore company or to buy Rolex's for the Sharif and family? Mr. Ahsan Iqbal, may your claims be true and my fears prove to be wrong, but I couldn't disagree with the Tweet by Moonis Elahi that N League may be full of successful businessmen but they aren't willing to promote state owned businesses.